Revealed: Our first election opinion poll results

Should these poll results prove similar to the actual result, then it looks as though Browne and Howlin will be elected early on, although not on the first count. Only 2.5% separates the next six candidates, fighting for those three remaining seats. These six include outgoing Fine Gael Ministers Paul Kehoe and Michael Darcy, Sinn Fein’s Johnny Mythen who came within 52 votes of a seat in 2016, Independent Verona Murphy and the Fianna Fail duo of Deputy Malcolm Byrne and Cllr Michael Sheehan.

Geography could play a big role in transfers. North Wexford is unlikely to return 4 TD’s, meaning one of the last seats could come down to a battle between South Wexford/New Ross candidates. Sheehan and Murphy, look to be in with the best shout here, but perhaps McDonald or Carthy can gather enough support over the next few weeks to challenge. All may depend on who can inch ahead at the all-important time. Transfers from Fianna Fail running mate Lisa McDonald and Aontu’s Jim Codd could make all the difference to Sheehan, while transfers from other independents Carthy and O’Shea could help spring Murphy forward.

There looks to be a possibility that FG will struggle to retain their two seats, similar to 2016. Given the reduction in support levels for the party nationwide in recent weeks, neither Kehoe or Darcy can be sure of their seat. In fact, it may develop into a personal battle between them, for 1 seat. It is also worth noting, however, that Fine Gael have traditionally managed their vote very well in Co. Wexford. Running only two candidates this time gives both a larger section of the County to gather votes from.

The WexfordToday opinion poll is as follows:

Browne (FF) 13.5%

Howlin (Lab) 12%

Byrne (FF) 10.5%

Darcy (FG) 10%

Kehoe (FG) 9%

Mythen (SF) 9%

V Murphy (Non Party) 9%

Sheehan (FF) 8%

Carthy (Non Party) 6%

McDonald (FF) 5%

O’Shea (I4C) 4%

Codd (Aon) 3%

Wadding (PBP) 1%

Please note that this poll commenced prior to the final field being decided and did not include late declared candidates Roseingrave (Green Party) and B Murphy (Independent). We hope to run another similar poll closer to election time, to examine if any changes in opinion have occurred. Both online and Offline methods were used.

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